Draft Position Does Matter

Fantasy Football is a game of high variance where every small edge counts, even if we can't predict game day outcomes with certainty. I’ve long suspected that having an early first-round draft pick could be a game-changer, providing a meaningful advantage. Until recently, this was just a hunch. But after a bit of digging, there is data to back up my intuition.

Each season, a small handful of players emerge as “league-winners,” giving fantasy teams a huge advantage and helping them make it deep into the playoffs. The allure of a high first-round pick lies in the belief that these players have the highest likelihood to be one of those “league-winners.” This isn’t a hard rule – diamonds in the rough emerge every year from the late rounds and even off waivers. Since 2018, however, only six non-quarterbacks who played in 8+ games scored over 22 half-PPR fantasy points per game (Fpts/G), and ALL were top 5 picks:

Player	Season	Fpts/G	ADP
Christian McCaffrey	2019	25.8	1.3
Todd Gurley	2018	25.4	1.1
Derrick Henry	2021	23.0	1.3
Dalvin Cook	2020	22.6	1.4
Christian McCaffrey	2023	22.4	1.2
Alvin Kamara	2020	22.4	1.5

As an aside, it’s interesting to note that none of these top scorers are wide receivers. In fact, since 2018, no WR taken within the top 4 picks has averaged more than 17 Fpts/G. This supports my strategy of heavily prioritizing running backs in the first round. I’ll delve deeper into this in a future post.

Why Early Picks Matter

“League-winners” provide such a significant advantage because they far surpass the output of a run-of-the-mill first-round pick. In a snake draft format, an early first-round pick means you’ll pick late in the second, early in the third, and so on, theoretically balancing the draft’s value. However, the advantage of picking earlier in a round diminishes as the draft progresses.

The chart below illustrates the relationship between ADP and Fpts/G for RBs and WRs who played in 8+ games since 2018:

It’s evident that the decrease in fantasy points is steeper for earlier picks than in later rounds. As the draft progresses, player values tend to flatten out. The most significant advantage is at the top of the draft, where the difference between a top-6 and a bottom-6 first-round draft pick is notable. The top 6 RBs and WRs in round 1 averaged 17.1 Fpts/G, compared to 15.8 for the bottom half, a 1.4 Fpts/G difference. That difference drops to nearly zero in the second, third, and fourth rounds. The theoretical balancing factor of picking early in the second and fourth rounds does not nearly make up for the early pick advantage in the first.

To further understand this, let's consider the concept of opportunity cost. When you draft early, you're not just picking a player; you're also deciding what you're giving up by not picking someone else. The players available at the top of the draft are often those with the highest ceiling and floor, providing both consistency and potential for explosive weeks. For example, Christian McCaffrey in 2019 not only led in fantasy points but did so with unmatched consistency, eclipsing 19 half-PPR points in 14 out of 16 games. This consistency is less common with later picks, where the variance in weekly scores can be much higher.

Risk vs. Reward

There’s inherent risk with early draft picks. Injuries are the least fun part of fantasy football, are unpredictable, and occur way too frequently. If your early first-round pick gets injured, it can completely derail your season. For example, Todd Gurley in 2018 was a league-winner, but his performance declined significantly the following year due to knee issues. However, the potential upside of drafting a dominant player often outweighs this risk. These players don’t just help; they often lead teams to championships. After all, the goal isn’t merely to have a decent team; it’s to win it all.

To mitigate this risk, savvy fantasy managers often draft with an eye towards depth, ensuring they have viable handcuffs or players with high upside later in the draft. This strategy allows for flexibility if an early pick underperforms or gets injured.  

Team Strategy and the Psychology of Drafting

Draft position not only affects the player you choose but also shapes your overall draft strategy. And early pick in the first round means you're picking late in the second, potentially missing out on a second or third tier of players. However, this can also be an advantage. By selecting a league-winner early, you're setting a foundation that allows for more flexibility in the later rounds. You might opt for a balanced approach, selecting a mix of high-floor players to ensure consistency, or go for high-ceiling players to chase upside.

There's also a psychological aspect to consider. Drafting early gives managers a sense of control and confidence. Knowing you have one of the top players can influence your decisions throughout the draft, often leading to more calculated risks. It can also affect your league mates, causing them to adjust their strategies based on who you've picked, sometimes to your advantage.

Conclusion

While there’s no foolproof strategy in fantasy football, securing an early first-round pick can significantly enhance your chances of drafting a league-winning player. The data supports the idea that the value of these early picks is substantial, given their historical performance advantage. Remember, at the top of the draft, the aim is to maximize your chances of finding those outliers who can lead you to fantasy glory. Drafting isn't just about picking players; it's about setting a strategy, managing risk, and understanding the dynamics of your league. Whether you're a seasoned manager or new to the game, understanding the importance of draft position can be a pivotal part of your fantasy football success.